1. 📉 Overall Commodities
- The IMF global price index declined to 160.9 in May 2025, down about 1% from April and ~4.6% year-over-year
- The World Bank forecasts a broader commodity price drop: ~12% in 2025, followed by ~5% in 2026, driven by weak growth and oversupply
2. 🔥 Energy (Oil, Gas, Coal)
- Crude Oil:
- Brent currently around $67–70/barrel, supported by geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East
- S&P projects WTI dipping to upper $40s in late 2025 post oversupply. OPEC+ raising output contributes to downward pressure
- Futures trading soared—record 219M lots in Q2 as traders hedge volatility
- Natural Gas & Coal:
- LNG demand in Europe surged 21.6%—Asia demand dropped ~6% due to price sensitivity
- Coal prices expected to fall ~27% in 2025, continuing oversupply trends
3. 🌾 Agriculture & Food
- FAO Food Price Index: 128 in June—up slightly month-over-month, yet ~20% below March 2022 peak
- Food commodities: Despite higher dairy, meat, and oils, cereal and sugar prices dropped; global food prices down ~2% in Q1, forecasted to fall further in 2025 .
- Grains & Oils:
- Wheat & maize stabilized after early-year volatility, with anticipated declines of ~2% in 2025 .
- Soybean meal/oil down ~5–7% Q1 YoY .
- Rice prices plunged ~14% in Q1, now ~29% below last year, due to abundant supply
4. 💊 Fertilizers
- The fertilizer index rose ~6–7% in Q1 2025, reflecting tight supply and increased nitrogen (urea) prices (+12–20% YoY)
- Global fertilizer prices projected to increase ~7% in 2025, stabilizing in 2026
5. 🏗️ Metals
- IMF and Reuters report increases in precious metals and base metals between Aug 2024 and Mar 2025
- Copper +8–12%, Aluminium +12.7% (tariffs-driven gains), Tin and precious metals also strong; nickel flat, zinc -6% due to surplus
- Outlook: World Bank forecasts a 10% drop in metal prices in 2025, with tin a probable outperformer; gold and silver expected to rise due to safe-haven demand .
🔍 Summary Table
| Category | Current Trends | Outlook (2025) |
| Energy | Brent ~$68–70; futures volatility high | ↓ Prices (~$64 avg); oversupply |
| Agriculture | Food index easing; cereals softening | ↓ ~7% food; grains/oils mild declines |
| Fertilizers | Up ~6–7% in Q1; urea tight | ↑ ~7%, stabilizing in 2026 |
| Metals | Copper/metals up; tin strong | ↓ ~10% metals; gold/silver ↑ |
| Overall | Commodity index down ~5% YTD | ↓ ~12% overall in 2025; ↓5% in 2026 |
✅ Strategic Implications
- Price Relief Expected: Softening in food, energy, and metals could ease inflation and input costs globally.
- Fertilizer Pressure: Continued price strength may impact agricultural margins and government subsidy pressures.
- Metal Sector Readiness: Surplus risks in industrial metals may affect mining sectors; gold/silver may attract safe-haven flows.
- Energy Uncertainty: Geopolitical shocks may spike prices even as structural oversupply persists.
